Uncertainty in effort estimates
Read bounds, joint scenarios, expected values and sensitivity correctly.
Calculate expected effort for mutually exclusive routes
Keep a weighted planning average separate from any single route.
Read a tail threshold from sorted effort observations
Specify an order rule instead of using an undefined percentile label.
Model co-occurring effort risks rather than adding impossible maxima
Use joint scenarios to distinguish an envelope from isolated risk lists.
Recognise when bounds cannot answer a likelihood question
Show two probability models compatible with the same effort range.
Find which estimate input has the larger effort effect
Compare controlled changes against one stated model.