Skip to content
Astera Technology

Model co-occurring effort risks rather than adding impossible maxima

Use joint scenarios to distinguish an envelope from isolated risk lists.

Plan from the supplied facts

Original plan has base effort 5 hours. Risk A adds 4 and risk B adds 6. The supplied scenario set permits neither, A only or B only, but expressly excludes both together. The maximum is therefore 11, not 15 hours. No probability is given.

Editable original planning example
Permitted scenarioAdded hoursTotal hours
Neither05
A only49
B only611
Download editable CSV ↓

Work through the choice

The dependency between risks changes the tail, even though each isolated addition stays the same. Adding maxima assumes a joint case the supplied model excludes.

If both together is added as a permitted scenario, what is the new maximum?

Show the worked answer

5+4+6=15 hours. The upper bound changes because the joint scenario changed, not because an individual risk estimate changed.

Material to use in your plan

Use one row per permitted joint scenario with base, additions and total. Record mutually exclusive risks explicitly before summing an effort envelope.

Related resources