Plan from the supplied facts
All records are invented. Two comparable completed exercises used 1.5 times their estimates. The planner proposes that same factor for a new comparable exercise, explicitly as an assumption. It is not evidence about a supplier or a guarantee for the next task.
| Exercise | Original estimate h | Recorded h / ratio | Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | 8 | 12 / 1.5 | Reference |
| R2 | 10 | 15 / 1.5 | Reference |
| New | 14 | Not observed | Proposed 21 h |
Work through the choice
Here both ratios agree: 12/8=15/10=1.5. Comparability must include what work and overhead were counted; otherwise applying the ratio changes the estimate basis.
What does the proposed factor produce for 14 hours, and what remains unknown?
Show the worked answer
21 hours. The next actual effort remains unknown, and applicability of the reference class still needs confirmation.
Material to use in your plan
Keep original estimate, recorded effort, comparable scope and proposed factor in separate columns. Retain the unadjusted new estimate beside the calibrated estimate so the adjustment is reviewable.