Fix the per-attempt effect model
Synthetic attempts W1/W2 each have one confirmed target effect; W3 has confirmed rejection with zero effect; W4/W5 each has an unknown outcome, either zero or one effect. No attempt can create more than one effect in this supplied model. Next operating phase requires the existing target-effect total to be at most three. No retry or target-search implementation is supplied.
| Attempts | Minimum effects | Maximum effects |
|---|---|---|
| W1,W2 known applied | 2 | 2 |
| W3 known rejected | 0 | 0 |
| W4,W5 unknown | 0 | 2 |
Enumerate possible effect totals
- Add confirmed effects
- Enumerate unknown zero/one choices
- Compare greatest possible total with three
Unknown outcomes cannot be forced to zero merely to make the cap pass.
What is the possible effect range, and is the at-most-three condition established?
Show the worked answer
Two to four effects. The four W4/W5 combinations give totals2,3,3,4. At-most-three is not established because four remains possible; this does not prove four actually occurred. Calling W3/W4/W5 all not applied would misclassify the two unknown outcomes.
Test the cap against the full range
| Case | Decision | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| W4=0,W5=0 | Total2; within cap | Possible lower bound |
| W4=1,W5=0 | Total3; within cap | One unknown applies |
| W4=0,W5=1 | Total3; within cap | Other unknown applies |
| W4=1,W5=1 | Total4; exceeds cap | Possible upper bound |
The operating decision remains unestablished until effect evidence narrows the range enough to satisfy the supplied cap. Use the existing uncertain-write procedure to obtain evidence; this calculation does not choose a replay action.